The movement between El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events is sometimes described like a pendulum. Our atmosphere oscillates between these two states of the atmosphere and it impacts our weather globally, some places more than others. The state of EN/LN has significant impact on our North American hurricane season!
Let's take a look at what we can predict for June U.S. Gulf Coast tropical cyclones (the generic term for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes) looking at where we are within the EN/LN continuous oscillation, sea water temperatures and good ol' history.
Within the EN/LN continuum, we are just about neutral. And within a small range on either side, there are 19 Junes for us to examine since 1979
Within those 19 Junes, 10 tropical cyclones (TCs) have made landfall somewhere between Texas and Florida. This would suggest that the historical probability of a landfalling TC this June is about 53%. These tend to be depressions, tropical storms of Category 1 hurricanes. But, if you've read my previous article (here), we are in a rather unusual season when it comes to the warmth of the Gulf Coast waters and most of the Atlantic. They are hot, and heat is the fuel for a TC...so there is a strong possibility that a Gulf Coast storm THIS year will have the fuel it needs to grow into an intense storm. This year in particular, the table is set for a record-breaking, intense storm to invade the Gulf Coast.
What's more, warm waters change the atmosphere dynamically in ways that can help a tropical cyclone form. The presence of abnormally warm water can aid convection (thunderstorms) and reduce shear, both are conditions that TCs must have to form. It's not a stretch to conclude that where we are in terms of warm ocean waters is likely to raise the probability of one or more landfalling Gulf Coast TCs this year. I would put that probability at around 70%.
I have additional support for that because I also looked at the Junes I cited in that previous article (here). Sure enough, a TC formed in each of those Junes (2022, 2020 and 2011), and two made landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
I wish the news was better! So WHERE is a June Gulf Coast storm likely to landfall?
In looking at where these historical storms clustered at landfall, there is also a story to be told. Of the 10 historical landfalling storms there are two areas they tend to cluster. Three (30%) came ashore in Western Louisiana to East Texas, four (40%) in the bend of Florida, and the remaining 30% scattered between.
Having 19 Junes to examine that fell within our 'neutral' EN/LN criteria gives a solid basis to examine TC tracks and tendencies. Also, having a clear departure from the norm in terms of sea temperature give us a further basis for a prediction.
The conditions are favoring TC formation, higher-than-normal intensification and at least one landfall in June of 2024. Be prepared!
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